As we reach the end of round two its time to evaluate the start of the footy season. While its only March and premierships cant be won or lost for that matter for a few months we have now had a look at the most active players in the transfer market while the seven new NRL coaches have each stamped their authority on their new clubs.
The most impressive club already this season has been the Melbourne Storm who seem to rival coackroaches in there ability to outlast all others. Despite the salary cap scandal and the loss of player after player, the spine of Cronk, Slater and Smith and coaching nous Bellamy means that Melbourne appear destined for another top four finish. Last years premiers Manly have started the season a little stronger then many expected with the continual off field dramas appearing to have little affect on their performances. Winning when far from their best against Wests on Friday night will warm the heart of Toovey.
The 2012 incarnation of Tim Sheens Tigers appear toothless and rudderless. Aaron Woods and Matt Groat have struggled to pick up the slack after Bryce Gibbs and Andrew Fifita departed the club and injuries to Keith Galloway and now Gareth Ellis will hurt. The club appears to be a second rower heavy and front rower short while continuing to play marquee man Adam Blair on the edges. Furthermore the pairing of Moltzen and Marshall in the halves is completely rudderless. Marshall was disgraceful in round one and if refereed correctly his knock on from the charge down in extra time would have cost Wests two points. Marshall and Moltzen will rely heavily on Robbie Farah to steer the side around the park and do most of the kicking, but his performance in crunch games is questionable at best. For all of the focus on their 2005 success there isn’t a player left at the club that played a dominant role in their successes. Scott Prince and Brett Hodgson were the generals of that side and after two insipid performances their favouritsm looks misplaced. I would feel comfortable giving long odds of the Tigers adding to their solitary Premiership in 2012.
Coming into the year with a weight of expectation, that is perhaps undeserved, is the New Zealand Warriors. People forget the Warriors finished sixth and were belted in the first round of the finals before Wests Tigers snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the Preliminary Final. While they undoubtedly have the strongest depth in the competition their commitment can at times be questioned. Their performance tonight perfectly demonstrates their attitude to Rugby League - score as many tries as you like we’ll score more. Against sides such as Manly and Melbourne with strong playing cultures however their size and strength is unlikely to be enough for them to pile on the points and they need to develop a tougher brand of football in which they are capable of grinding teams out of games - completing sets, kicking well and defending stoutly. I question whether the Warriors are capable of such football and tip them to finish in the bottom half of the top eight again this year.
Canterbury and Penrith missed the top eight last year but welcome the respective grand final coaches to their clubs. Hasler and Cleary have already made definitive differences to their sides. While their round one clash was largely uninspiring both teams appear far more committed and disciplined and their round two performances demonstrated as such with impressive victories over St George and the Roosters. Steve Price has taken over at the Dragons and appears to be trying to replicate Wayne Bennett’s tenure at the club with an inferior roster. The loss of Mark Gasnier will have little impact on the club other than the teamsheet as he failed to return to his best after his French sojourn however the combined losses of Jeremy Smith, Neville Costigan and Darius Boyd over the past two seasons have significantly weakened the two main points of Bennetts philosophy at the club - a strong and imposing forward pack and the best left edge option play in the competition. Boyd behind Creagh with Morris on the outside has been St Georges trademark over the last few years. Price will learn quickly in the NRL that gameplans need to be built around the cattle at your disposal rather than the other way around. All three clubs offer no premiership threat for me with the Dragons on a downward spiral and Penrith and Canterbury at least twelve months from a title challenge.
Gold Coast recruited heavily in the off season but will continue to struggle this season while a talented North Queensland roster continue to struggle from a poisonous attitude that leads to diabolical performances such as round one. In saying that though they are definitely a team capable of winning the competition if they can get things right. Do I think they will? No. Parramatta are my lock team for the wooden spoon and have not shown anything to demonstrate otherwise this year. The Roosters have a powerful forward pack and youthful exuberance and will struggle at stages this season. Will probably scrape into the eight and be one of those sides that the top sides fear most, struggling with consistency but capable of brilliance. The Broncos are a side that I would group with the Roosters with a crop of exciting players making their way in the NRL.
The Newcastle Knights are similar to Wests Tigers in that their ability has been significantly inflated in betting markets. I do not conform with the popular opinion that Danny Buderus is a huge plus for the club as he has played the last three years in a far inferior competition averaging less than 55 minutes a game. The loss of De Gois is immense for this football club, Similarly I have very little regard for Kade Snowden and fail to understand the hype that surrounds the slow and lumbering prop forward. Far from title favorites in my books. The Cronulla Sharks have recruited wisely this season but are still two quality centres short of the top eight. Their game on the weekend perfecty demonstrated that both teams are at least a yard off the pace in this competition while on yesterdays display the Sharks are fighting tooth and nail to keep the wooden spoon from Parramatta.
Joining Parramatta and Cronulla at the foot of the table after two rounds is the South Sydney Rabbitohs. Souths have perhaps undergone the most radical off season transformation under a new coach after two years of undercoaching at the hands of John Lang. With a new rookie halfback joining the new coach and the elevation of Dylan Farrell to fullback and Nathan Peats to hooker, Souths were always going to be a work in progress at this stage of the season. Maguire’s biggest challenge will be unlocking the potential John Sutton has always threatened and forming a left side combination with Greg Inglis. Defensively apart from the last three minutes of each of the first two rounds Souths have been more dominant than at any stage of the last two years and the signs on that front are entirely positive. However their cohesion and ball control in attack has let them down while the inability to capitalise on the most dangerous attacking left side in the competition needs to be addressed immediately. The positives include the round one performance of Nathan Peats, and round two performance of Isaac Luke indicating that if Maguire can keep the Kiwi international happy he will have an impressive hooker rotation. Farrell is developng well at fullback while the return of Nathan Merritt at either fullback or the wing cannot come quick enough. In Sam Burgess South Sydney have a player capable of taking the competition by the scruff of the neck and leading a Premiership charge allowing supporters to dare to dream. If he stays fit he could challenge for the Dally M medal regardless of whether or not Souths win a game this year, having been adjudged best on field in both of Souths losses by better judges than myself.
There you have it - AVFTT has thrown it out there declaring Newcastle, Wests Tigers and St George Illawarra incapable of winning the 2012 Premiership while declaring Parramatta locks for a wooden spoon. The Gold Coast Titans, Canterbury Bulldogs and Penrith Panthers will threaten at times but ultimately flatter to deceive, while similarly North Queensland, Brisbane Broncos, Sydney Roosters and New Zealand Warriors will be inconsistent but capable of winning beating the top sides to a Premiership. While Cronulla will improve but finish closer to the foot of the table than top 8. Manly and Melbourne will dominate this edition of the competition while Canberra Raiders need a bit of luck with injuries but are more than capable of a title challenge on the back of a giant forward pack and the skill of Dugan, Croker and Campese. Written off after two games and by all of AVFTT readers is South Sydney who I will refrain from offering definitive views on other than to say I am more than happy with the displays in each game this season however gutted I am with the results.
The most impressive club already this season has been the Melbourne Storm who seem to rival coackroaches in there ability to outlast all others. Despite the salary cap scandal and the loss of player after player, the spine of Cronk, Slater and Smith and coaching nous Bellamy means that Melbourne appear destined for another top four finish. Last years premiers Manly have started the season a little stronger then many expected with the continual off field dramas appearing to have little affect on their performances. Winning when far from their best against Wests on Friday night will warm the heart of Toovey.
The 2012 incarnation of Tim Sheens Tigers appear toothless and rudderless. Aaron Woods and Matt Groat have struggled to pick up the slack after Bryce Gibbs and Andrew Fifita departed the club and injuries to Keith Galloway and now Gareth Ellis will hurt. The club appears to be a second rower heavy and front rower short while continuing to play marquee man Adam Blair on the edges. Furthermore the pairing of Moltzen and Marshall in the halves is completely rudderless. Marshall was disgraceful in round one and if refereed correctly his knock on from the charge down in extra time would have cost Wests two points. Marshall and Moltzen will rely heavily on Robbie Farah to steer the side around the park and do most of the kicking, but his performance in crunch games is questionable at best. For all of the focus on their 2005 success there isn’t a player left at the club that played a dominant role in their successes. Scott Prince and Brett Hodgson were the generals of that side and after two insipid performances their favouritsm looks misplaced. I would feel comfortable giving long odds of the Tigers adding to their solitary Premiership in 2012.
Coming into the year with a weight of expectation, that is perhaps undeserved, is the New Zealand Warriors. People forget the Warriors finished sixth and were belted in the first round of the finals before Wests Tigers snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the Preliminary Final. While they undoubtedly have the strongest depth in the competition their commitment can at times be questioned. Their performance tonight perfectly demonstrates their attitude to Rugby League - score as many tries as you like we’ll score more. Against sides such as Manly and Melbourne with strong playing cultures however their size and strength is unlikely to be enough for them to pile on the points and they need to develop a tougher brand of football in which they are capable of grinding teams out of games - completing sets, kicking well and defending stoutly. I question whether the Warriors are capable of such football and tip them to finish in the bottom half of the top eight again this year.
Canterbury and Penrith missed the top eight last year but welcome the respective grand final coaches to their clubs. Hasler and Cleary have already made definitive differences to their sides. While their round one clash was largely uninspiring both teams appear far more committed and disciplined and their round two performances demonstrated as such with impressive victories over St George and the Roosters. Steve Price has taken over at the Dragons and appears to be trying to replicate Wayne Bennett’s tenure at the club with an inferior roster. The loss of Mark Gasnier will have little impact on the club other than the teamsheet as he failed to return to his best after his French sojourn however the combined losses of Jeremy Smith, Neville Costigan and Darius Boyd over the past two seasons have significantly weakened the two main points of Bennetts philosophy at the club - a strong and imposing forward pack and the best left edge option play in the competition. Boyd behind Creagh with Morris on the outside has been St Georges trademark over the last few years. Price will learn quickly in the NRL that gameplans need to be built around the cattle at your disposal rather than the other way around. All three clubs offer no premiership threat for me with the Dragons on a downward spiral and Penrith and Canterbury at least twelve months from a title challenge.
Gold Coast recruited heavily in the off season but will continue to struggle this season while a talented North Queensland roster continue to struggle from a poisonous attitude that leads to diabolical performances such as round one. In saying that though they are definitely a team capable of winning the competition if they can get things right. Do I think they will? No. Parramatta are my lock team for the wooden spoon and have not shown anything to demonstrate otherwise this year. The Roosters have a powerful forward pack and youthful exuberance and will struggle at stages this season. Will probably scrape into the eight and be one of those sides that the top sides fear most, struggling with consistency but capable of brilliance. The Broncos are a side that I would group with the Roosters with a crop of exciting players making their way in the NRL.
The Newcastle Knights are similar to Wests Tigers in that their ability has been significantly inflated in betting markets. I do not conform with the popular opinion that Danny Buderus is a huge plus for the club as he has played the last three years in a far inferior competition averaging less than 55 minutes a game. The loss of De Gois is immense for this football club, Similarly I have very little regard for Kade Snowden and fail to understand the hype that surrounds the slow and lumbering prop forward. Far from title favorites in my books. The Cronulla Sharks have recruited wisely this season but are still two quality centres short of the top eight. Their game on the weekend perfecty demonstrated that both teams are at least a yard off the pace in this competition while on yesterdays display the Sharks are fighting tooth and nail to keep the wooden spoon from Parramatta.
Joining Parramatta and Cronulla at the foot of the table after two rounds is the South Sydney Rabbitohs. Souths have perhaps undergone the most radical off season transformation under a new coach after two years of undercoaching at the hands of John Lang. With a new rookie halfback joining the new coach and the elevation of Dylan Farrell to fullback and Nathan Peats to hooker, Souths were always going to be a work in progress at this stage of the season. Maguire’s biggest challenge will be unlocking the potential John Sutton has always threatened and forming a left side combination with Greg Inglis. Defensively apart from the last three minutes of each of the first two rounds Souths have been more dominant than at any stage of the last two years and the signs on that front are entirely positive. However their cohesion and ball control in attack has let them down while the inability to capitalise on the most dangerous attacking left side in the competition needs to be addressed immediately. The positives include the round one performance of Nathan Peats, and round two performance of Isaac Luke indicating that if Maguire can keep the Kiwi international happy he will have an impressive hooker rotation. Farrell is developng well at fullback while the return of Nathan Merritt at either fullback or the wing cannot come quick enough. In Sam Burgess South Sydney have a player capable of taking the competition by the scruff of the neck and leading a Premiership charge allowing supporters to dare to dream. If he stays fit he could challenge for the Dally M medal regardless of whether or not Souths win a game this year, having been adjudged best on field in both of Souths losses by better judges than myself.
There you have it - AVFTT has thrown it out there declaring Newcastle, Wests Tigers and St George Illawarra incapable of winning the 2012 Premiership while declaring Parramatta locks for a wooden spoon. The Gold Coast Titans, Canterbury Bulldogs and Penrith Panthers will threaten at times but ultimately flatter to deceive, while similarly North Queensland, Brisbane Broncos, Sydney Roosters and New Zealand Warriors will be inconsistent but capable of winning beating the top sides to a Premiership. While Cronulla will improve but finish closer to the foot of the table than top 8. Manly and Melbourne will dominate this edition of the competition while Canberra Raiders need a bit of luck with injuries but are more than capable of a title challenge on the back of a giant forward pack and the skill of Dugan, Croker and Campese. Written off after two games and by all of AVFTT readers is South Sydney who I will refrain from offering definitive views on other than to say I am more than happy with the displays in each game this season however gutted I am with the results.
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